Scarborough North
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
In the by-election, our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 45.6 points.
The by-election
Favourite
Liberal
100% chance of winning
Projected vote share
Why the by-election and the general election differ
The Liberal Party leads in both cases.
Further down, the projection assumes a general election, with every seat voting on the same day. Fewer people vote in a by-election, and the least motivated supporters are the ones who stay home, so the favourite can change.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough North | 62.3% | 24.1% | 5.0% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+13.7 | 34.4%−10.4 | 5.4%−0.4 | 1.8%−0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+15.3 | 30.4%−6.3 | 11.8%−6.8 | 2.1%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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|---|
Current member
Shaun Chen · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 29.5 points, with 60.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 38.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Chen Elected | Liberal | 29,418 | 62.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Gurmit Sandhu | Conservative | 15,487 | 32.8 | Insurance Broker |
| Karishma Manji | NDP | 1,827 | 3.9 | Family Physician |
| Other candidates | 442 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Scarborough—Woburn Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Thornhill Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough Southwest Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated