Markham—Thornhill
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markham—Thornhill | 54.1% | 32.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+5.5 | 34.4%−2.5 | 5.4%−1.3 | 1.8%+0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+7.1 | 30.4%+1.6 | 11.8%−7.7 | 2.1%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Tim Hodgson · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 12.8 points, with 63.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 22.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hodgson Elected | Liberal | 27,504 | 54.2 | Corporate Director |
| Lionel Loganathan | Conservative | 21,003 | 41.4 | Businessman |
| Aftab Qureshi | NDP | 1,022 | 2.0 | Real Estate Broker |
| Mimi Lee | PPC | 747 | 1.5 | Financial Advisor |
| Haider Qureshi | Other | 153 | 0.3 | Sales and Marketing |
| Other candidates | 307 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Scarborough North Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Stouffville Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Unionville Liberal, toss-up
- Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Woburn Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated