Markham—Stouffville
Federal riding · Ontario · York and Durham
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markham—Stouffville | 50.7% | 36.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+2.1 | 34.4%+2.0 | 5.4%−1.6 | 1.8%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+3.7 | 30.4%+6.0 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.1%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Helena Jaczek · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 6.1 points, with 69.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 14.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helena Jaczek Elected | Liberal | 31,658 | 51.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Niran Jeyanesan | Conservative | 27,898 | 45.0 | Police Officer |
| Serena Cheung | NDP | 1,121 | 1.8 | Environmental Consultant |
| Myles O'Brien | Green | 433 | 0.7 | Sustainability Coordinator |
| René de Vries | PPC | 393 | 0.6 | Environmental Geoscientist |
| Shahzad Ahmed | Other | 141 | 0.2 | Banker |
| Other candidates | 333 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Markham—Thornhill Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Unionville Liberal, toss-up
- Pickering—Brooklin Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough North Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated