Pickering—Brooklin
Federal riding · Ontario · York and Durham
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pickering—Brooklin | 53.5% | 32.4% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+4.9 | 34.4%−2.1 | 5.4%−1.4 | 1.8%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+6.5 | 30.4%+2.0 | 11.8%−7.9 | 2.1%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Juanita Nathan · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 12.9 points, with 70.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 21.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juanita Nathan Elected | Liberal | 38,578 | 53.9 | Councillor |
| Alicia Vianga | Conservative | 29,320 | 40.9 | Business Owner |
| Jamie Nye | NDP | 1,838 | 2.6 | Electrician |
| Lisa Robinson | PPC | 639 | 0.9 | Councellor |
| Andrea Wood | Green | 535 | 0.7 | Accountant |
| Zainab Rana | Other | 322 | 0.4 | Student |
| Other candidates | 368 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Markham—Stouffville Liberal, safe seat
- Ajax Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Thornhill Liberal, safe seat
- Whitby Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough North Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated