Ajax
Federal riding · Ontario · York and Durham
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 55.5% | 30.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+7.0 | 34.4%−4.2 | 5.4%−1.4 | 1.8%−0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+8.5 | 30.4%−0.2 | 11.8%−7.8 | 2.4%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jennifer McKelvie · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 17.1 points, with 67.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 25.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer McKelvie Elected | Liberal | 36,975 | 55.9 | Municipal Councillor |
| Greg Brady | Conservative | 25,658 | 38.8 | Radio Broadcaster |
| Kyle Forster | NDP | 1,762 | 2.7 | Property Management |
| Faisal Ali | Other | 643 | 1.0 | Project Manager |
| Leigh Paulseth | Green | 612 | 0.9 | Program Coordinator |
| Other candidates | 483 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Whitby Liberal, safe seat
- Pickering—Brooklin Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Liberal, safe seat
- Oshawa Liberal, toss-up
- Markham—Stouffville Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Thornhill Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated