Whitby
Federal riding · Ontario · York and Durham
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whitby | 52.0% | 34.9% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+3.4 | 34.4%+0.5 | 5.4%−1.5 | 1.8%−0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+5.0 | 30.4%+4.5 | 11.8%−7.9 | 2.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Ryan Turnbull · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 8.8 points, with 71.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 17.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Turnbull Elected | Liberal | 35,624 | 52.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Steve Yamada | Conservative | 29,620 | 43.5 | Regional Councillor |
| Kevin Goswell | NDP | 1,638 | 2.4 | Correctional Officer |
| Andrew Di Lullo | Green | 506 | 0.7 | Lawyer |
| Nouman Mian | Other | 206 | 0.3 | Self-Employed IT Project Manager |
| Other candidates | 456 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ajax Liberal, safe seat
- Oshawa Liberal, toss-up
- Pickering—Brooklin Liberal, safe seat
- Bowmanville—Oshawa North Liberal, toss-up
- Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Stouffville Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated