Toronto—St. Paul's
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto—St. Paul's | 61.5% | 24.2% | 4.9% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+12.9 | 34.4%−10.3 | 5.4%−0.5 | 1.8%−0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+14.5 | 30.4%−6.2 | 11.8%−6.9 | 2.1%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Leslie Church · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 28.6 points, with 73.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 37.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leslie Church Elected | Liberal | 44,313 | 61.6 | Business Consultant |
| Don Stewart | Conservative | 23,700 | 32.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Bruce Levy | NDP | 2,496 | 3.5 | Retired |
| Shane Philips | Green | 552 | 0.8 | Singer-Songwriter |
| Joseph Frasca | PPC | 329 | 0.5 | Location Coordinator |
| David Gershuny | Other | 133 | 0.2 | Shipper-Receiver |
| Cynthia Valdron | Other | 58 | 0.1 | Engineer |
| Other candidates | 391 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Eglinton—Lawrence Liberal, safe seat
- University—Rosedale Liberal, safe seat
- Davenport Liberal, safe seat
- Toronto Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Don Valley West Liberal, safe seat
- Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High Park Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated