Davenport
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 40.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davenport | 57.2% | 16.4% | 14.3% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+8.6 | 5.4%+11.0 | 34.4%−20.2 | 1.8%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+10.2 | 11.8%+4.6 | 30.4%−16.2 | 2.4%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Julie Dzerowicz · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 34.3 points, with 65.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 40.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julie Dzerowicz Elected | Liberal | 35,364 | 57.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Francis Lavoie | Conservative | 14,189 | 23.0 | Business Development Manager |
| Sandra Sousa | NDP | 10,452 | 16.9 | Data Engineer |
| Lilian Barrera | Green | 782 | 1.3 | Freelance Artist and Writer |
| Dave McKee | Other | 387 | 0.6 | Journalist |
| Other candidates | 533 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High Park Liberal, safe seat
- University—Rosedale Liberal, safe seat
- Toronto—St. Paul's Liberal, safe seat
- Toronto Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Spadina—Harbourfront Liberal, safe seat
- Eglinton—Lawrence Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated