Spadina—Harbourfront

Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
Spadina—Harbourfront	59.6%	21.8%	6.0%	1.5%
Provincial averageOntario	48.6%+11.0	34.4%−12.6	5.4%+0.6	1.8%−0.3
National averageCanada	47.0%+12.6	30.4%−8.6	11.8%−5.9	2.1%−0.6

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 1.1% English 83.3% Other languages 15.6%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Chi Nguyen · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 29.2 points, with 64.9% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 37.8 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Chi Nguyen Elected	Liberal	31,832	59.7	Executive Director
Diana Filipova	Conservative	16,286	30.6	Teacher
Norm Di Pasquale	NDP	4,107	7.7	Senior Consultant
Gordon Rand	Green	448	0.8	Actor
Gilbert Joseph Jubinville	PPC	193	0.4	Certified Engineering Technologist
Nick Lin	Other	85	0.2	Web Designer
Shrey Rao	Independent	39	0.1	Financial Analyst
Other candidates		312	0.6

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.