Toronto Centre
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 51.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Centre | 63.8% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+15.2 | 34.4%−22.4 | 5.4%+5.8 | 1.8% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+16.8 | 30.4%−18.4 | 11.8%−0.7 | 2.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Evan Solomon · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 43.1 points, with 63.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 51.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Solomon Elected | Liberal | 37,907 | 63.9 | Journalist |
| Luis Ibarra | Conservative | 12,321 | 20.8 | Business Owner |
| Samantha Green | NDP | 7,358 | 12.4 | Family Physician |
| Olivia Iheme | Green | 664 | 1.1 | Unemployed |
| Nathen Mazri | PPC | 235 | 0.4 | Chief Executive Officer |
| Simon Luisi | Other | 177 | 0.3 | Courier |
| Philip Fernandez | Other | 170 | 0.3 | Teacher |
| Cleveland Marshall | Independent | 90 | 0.2 | Management Consultant |
| Other candidates | 438 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- University—Rosedale Liberal, safe seat
- Toronto—Danforth Liberal, safe seat
- Spadina—Harbourfront Liberal, safe seat
- Toronto—St. Paul's Liberal, safe seat
- Davenport Liberal, safe seat
- Beaches—East York Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated