Beaches—East York
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaches—East York | 56.9% | 23.4% | 8.6% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+8.3 | 5.4%+18.0 | 34.4%−25.8 | 1.8%+0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+9.9 | 11.8%+11.6 | 30.4%−21.8 | 2.4%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 44.0 points, with 71.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 33.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Erskine-Smith Elected | Liberal | 39,804 | 67.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Jocelyne Poirier | Conservative | 13,830 | 23.4 | Director of Finance |
| Shannon Devine | NDP | 4,027 | 6.8 | Communications Director |
| Jack Pennings | Green | 748 | 1.3 | Software Developer |
| Diane Joseph | Independent | 161 | 0.3 | Social Service Worker |
| Elizabeth Rowley | Other | 146 | 0.2 | Federal Political Party Leader |
| Steve Rutchinski | Other | 39 | 0.1 | Post-Secondary Education Administrator |
| Other candidates | 310 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Toronto—Danforth Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough Southwest Liberal, safe seat
- Toronto Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Don Valley West Liberal, safe seat
- Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Liberal, safe seat
- Toronto—St. Paul's Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated