Toronto—Danforth
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 54.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto—Danforth | 66.1% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+17.5 | 5.4%+6.2 | 34.4%−24.3 | 1.8%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+19.1 | 11.8%−0.2 | 30.4%−20.3 | 2.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Julie Dabrusin · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 47.3 points, with 71.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 54.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julie Dabrusin Elected | Liberal | 39,191 | 66.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Ashik Hussain | Conservative | 11,187 | 18.9 | Freelancer |
| Clare Hacksel | NDP | 7,626 | 12.9 | Registered Midwife |
| Silvia Stardust | Green | 626 | 1.1 | Entertainer |
| Liz White | Other | 251 | 0.4 | Party Leader |
| Other candidates | 347 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Toronto Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Beaches—East York Liberal, safe seat
- Spadina—Harbourfront Liberal, safe seat
- University—Rosedale Liberal, safe seat
- Toronto—St. Paul's Liberal, safe seat
- Don Valley West Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated