University—Rosedale
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 48.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University—Rosedale | 64.6% | 16.0% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+16.1 | 5.4%+10.6 | 34.4%−27.5 | 1.8%+1.5 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+17.6 | 11.8%+4.2 | 30.4%−23.5 | 2.4%+0.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Danielle Martin · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 40.2 points, with 65.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 48.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrystia Freeland Elected | Liberal | 39,847 | 63.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Liz Grade | Conservative | 14,624 | 23.3 | Real Estate Broker |
| Serena Purdy | NDP | 6,168 | 9.8 | PhD Student |
| Ignacio Mongrell | Green | 1,066 | 1.7 | Assistant Director, ICUBE - University of Toronto |
| Drew Garvie | Other | 304 | 0.5 | Office Administration |
| Barbara Biley | Other | 138 | 0.2 | Medical Stenographer |
| Adam Golding | Independent | 118 | 0.2 | Computer Science Teacher |
| Other candidates | 466 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Toronto Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Davenport Liberal, safe seat
- Toronto—St. Paul's Liberal, safe seat
- Spadina—Harbourfront Liberal, safe seat
- Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High Park Liberal, safe seat
- Toronto—Danforth Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated