Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Federal riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etobicoke—Lakeshore | 57.0% | 29.8% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+8.4 | 34.4%−4.6 | 5.4%−0.8 | 1.8%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+10.0 | 30.4%−0.6 | 11.8%−7.2 | 2.1% |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
James Maloney · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 18.5 points, with 69.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 27.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Maloney Elected | Liberal | 37,512 | 57.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Bernard Trottier | Conservative | 25,348 | 38.6 | Management Consultant |
| Cory Wagar | NDP | 1,665 | 2.5 | Freelance Media Specialist |
| Thomas Fanjoy | PPC | 616 | 0.9 | Engineer |
| Janice Murray | Other | 197 | 0.3 | Bindery Machine Operator and Graphic Artist |
| Other candidates | 369 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Etobicoke Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Taiaiako'n—Parkdale—High Park Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga East—Cooksville Liberal, safe seat
- Davenport Liberal, safe seat
- York South—Weston—Etobicoke Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Lakeshore Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated