Oakville East

Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
Oakville East	50.5%	36.0%	4.0%	1.7%
Provincial averageOntario	48.6%+1.9	34.4%+1.6	5.4%−1.4	1.8%−0.1
National averageCanada	47.0%+3.5	30.4%+5.6	11.8%−7.8	2.1%−0.4

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 77.1% Other languages (French included) 22.9%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Anita Anand · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 6.3 points, with 73.0% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 14.5 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Anita Anand Elected	Liberal	31,128	50.9	Parlamentarian
Ron Chhinzer	Conservative	27,301	44.6	Vice President External Affairs
Hailey Ford	NDP	1,698	2.8	Student
Bruno Sousa	Green	351	0.6	Technology Entrepreneur and Consultant
Henry Karabela	PPC	335	0.5	Retired
Alicia Bedford	Other	59	0.1	Self-Employed
Other candidates		331	0.5

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.