Oakville West
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakville West | 52.4% | 35.5% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+3.8 | 34.4%+1.1 | 5.4%−1.6 | 1.8%−0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+5.4 | 30.4%+5.1 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.1%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Sima Acan · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 8.6 points, with 74.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 16.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sima Acan Elected | Liberal | 31,872 | 52.7 | Engineering |
| Tim Crowder | Conservative | 26,668 | 44.1 | Bank Executive |
| Diane Downey | NDP | 831 | 1.4 | Game Developer |
| Chris Kowalchuk | Green | 363 | 0.6 | Retired |
| JD Meaney | PPC | 254 | 0.4 | Mortgage Agent |
| Martin Gegus | Independent | 55 | 0.1 | IT Solutions Architect |
| Other candidates | 389 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Oakville East Liberal, safe seat
- Burlington Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Erin Mills Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Lakeshore Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Mississauga—Streetsville Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated