Wellington—Halton Hills North

Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 79% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Green
Wellington—Halton Hills North	43.6%	42.4%	3.6%	2.7%
Provincial averageOntario	48.6%−4.9	34.4%+8.0	5.4%−1.8	1.8%+0.9
National averageCanada	47.0%−3.4	30.4%+12.0	11.8%−8.2	2.4%+0.3

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 0.2% English 93.6% Other languages 6.2%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Michael Chong · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 6.2 points, with 76.0% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 1.6 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Michael Chong Elected	Conservative	33,736	50.3	Parliamentarian
Sean Carscadden	Liberal	29,609	44.2	Helicopter Pilot
Liam Stiles	Green	1,389	2.1	Registered Kinesiologist
Andrew Bascombe	NDP	1,346	2.0	Skilled Labour - Low-rise Housing
Syl Carle	PPC	566	0.8	Property Manager
Other candidates		370	0.6

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.