Waterloo
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 35.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterloo | 58.8% | 23.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+10.2 | 34.4%−10.6 | 5.4%−1.1 | 1.8%+1.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+11.8 | 30.4%−6.6 | 11.8%−7.5 | 2.4%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Bardish Chagger · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 26.8 points, with 72.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 35.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bardish Chagger Elected | Liberal | 37,579 | 59.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Waseem Botros | Conservative | 20,571 | 32.4 | Engineer |
| Héline Chow | NDP | 2,617 | 4.1 | Project Engineer |
| Simon Guthrie | Green | 1,599 | 2.5 | Community Leader |
| Douglas Ross | PPC | 348 | 0.5 | Security Guard |
| Val Neekman | Independent | 179 | 0.3 | Technical Entrepreneur |
| Santa Claus Chatham | Other | 119 | 0.2 | Exterminator |
| Hans Roach | Independent | 105 | 0.2 | Councillor |
| Jamie Hari | Independent | 76 | 0.1 | Cybersecurity Product Leader |
| Other candidates | 317 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kitchener Centre Green, toss-up
- Kitchener—Conestoga Liberal, safe seat
- Kitchener South—Hespeler Liberal, competitive
- Cambridge Liberal, competitive
- Guelph Liberal, safe seat
- Wellington—Halton Hills North Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated