Cambridge
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 24%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge | 45.7% | 39.6% | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−2.9 | 34.4%+5.2 | 5.4%−1.3 | 1.8%+0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−1.4 | 30.4%+9.2 | 11.8%−7.7 | 2.4%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Connie Cody · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 2.2 points, with 69.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 6.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connie Cody Elected | Conservative | 31,766 | 48.2 | Community Relations |
| Bryan May | Liberal | 30,309 | 46.0 | Parliamentarian |
| José de Lima | NDP | 2,183 | 3.3 | Social Services Manager |
| Lux Burgess | Green | 1,052 | 1.6 | Environmental Engineering |
| Manuel Couto | Other | 109 | 0.2 | Printer |
| Other candidates | 445 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kitchener South—Hespeler Liberal, competitive
- Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Conservative, toss-up
- Kitchener Centre Green, toss-up
- Waterloo Liberal, safe seat
- Guelph Liberal, safe seat
- Wellington—Halton Hills North Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated