Kitchener—Conestoga
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitchener—Conestoga | 47.7% | 38.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−0.8 | 34.4%+4.2 | 5.4%−1.4 | 1.8%+0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+0.7 | 30.4%+8.3 | 11.8%−7.8 | 2.1%+0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Tim Louis · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 0.8 points, with 73.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 9.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Louis Elected | Liberal | 30,001 | 48.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Doug Treleaven | Conservative | 29,479 | 47.3 | Retired Entrepreneur |
| Maya Bozorgzad | NDP | 1,821 | 2.9 | Lawyer |
| Kevin Dupuis | PPC | 786 | 1.3 | Property Manager |
| Other candidates | 285 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Waterloo Liberal, safe seat
- Kitchener Centre Green, toss-up
- Perth—Wellington Conservative, toss-up
- Kitchener South—Hespeler Liberal, competitive
- Cambridge Liberal, competitive
- Wellington—Halton Hills North Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated