Perth—Wellington
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 80%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perth—Wellington | 43.5% | 40.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+9.1 | 48.6%−8.6 | 5.4%−1.9 | 1.8%+1.0 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+13.1 | 47.0%−7.0 | 11.8%−8.3 | 2.1%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
John Nater · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 12.2 points, with 71.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 3.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Nater Elected | Conservative | 33,972 | 52.7 | Parliamentarian |
| David Mackey | Liberal | 26,142 | 40.6 | Board Member |
| Kevin Kruchkywich | NDP | 2,909 | 4.5 | Actor |
| Wayne Baker | PPC | 1,069 | 1.7 | Self-Employed |
| Other candidates | 334 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kitchener—Conestoga Liberal, safe seat
- Waterloo Liberal, safe seat
- Huron—Bruce Conservative, toss-up
- Kitchener Centre Green, toss-up
- Kitchener South—Hespeler Liberal, competitive
- Wellington—Halton Hills North Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated