Huron—Bruce
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 87%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huron—Bruce | 43.7% | 40.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+9.3 | 48.6%−7.9 | 5.4%−2.2 | 1.8%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+13.3 | 47.0%−6.3 | 11.8%−8.7 | 2.4%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Ben Lobb · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 11.6 points, with 75.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 3.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lobb Elected | Conservative | 37,027 | 52.9 | Parliamentarian |
| James Rice | Liberal | 28,936 | 41.3 | Lawyer |
| Melanie Burrett | NDP | 2,300 | 3.3 | Library Clerk |
| Gregory J McLean | Green | 927 | 1.3 | Retired Educator |
| Justin L Smith | Independent | 273 | 0.4 | Store Manager |
| Caesar salad Pella | Independent | 194 | 0.3 | Construction Craft Labourer |
| Other candidates | 351 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Perth—Wellington Conservative, toss-up
- Kitchener—Conestoga Liberal, safe seat
- Waterloo Liberal, safe seat
- Kitchener Centre Green, toss-up
- Kitchener South—Hespeler Liberal, competitive
- Wellington—Halton Hills North Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated