Hamilton Mountain
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton Mountain | 44.8% | 32.5% | 8.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−3.8 | 34.4%−1.9 | 5.4%+3.1 | 1.8%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−2.2 | 30.4%+2.1 | 11.8%−3.3 | 2.1%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Lisa Hepfner · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 4.1 points, with 67.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 12.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Hepfner Elected | Liberal | 27,302 | 45.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Ken Hewitt | Conservative | 24,857 | 41.1 | Self-Employed |
| Monique Taylor | NDP | 7,044 | 11.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Bing Wong | PPC | 497 | 0.8 | Entrepreneur |
| Rolf Gerstenberger | Other | 193 | 0.3 | Steel Worker |
| Other candidates | 523 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hamilton Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Liberal, competitive
- Burlington Liberal, safe seat
- Oakville West Liberal, safe seat
- Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated