Hamilton Centre
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton Centre | 41.3% | 26.8% | 21.1% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−7.3 | 5.4%+21.4 | 34.4%−13.3 | 1.8%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−5.7 | 11.8%+15.0 | 30.4%−9.3 | 2.1%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Aslam Rana · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 7.5 points, with 62.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 14.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aslam Rana Elected | Liberal | 21,388 | 37.2 | Professional Engineer |
| Hayden Lawrence | Conservative | 17,079 | 29.7 | Legal Clerk |
| Matthew Green | NDP | 16,581 | 28.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Sandy Crawley | Green | 818 | 1.4 | Performing Artist |
| David Speicher | PPC | 591 | 1.0 | Virologist |
| Carla Green | Independent | 215 | 0.4 | Social Worker |
| Cody Chenier | Other | 190 | 0.3 | Comedian |
| Michael Loomans | Independent | 90 | 0.2 | Technology and Innovation Management |
| Other candidates | 481 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hamilton Mountain Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Liberal, competitive
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Liberal, safe seat
- Burlington Liberal, safe seat
- Oakville West Liberal, safe seat
- Oakville East Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated