Haldimand—Norfolk
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haldimand—Norfolk | 48.1% | 35.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+13.6 | 48.6%−13.0 | 5.4%−2.2 | 1.8%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+17.7 | 47.0%−11.4 | 11.8%−8.6 | 2.1%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Leslyn Lewis · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 21.1 points, with 72.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 12.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leslyn Lewis Elected | Conservative | 41,218 | 57.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Colin Walsh | Liberal | 26,040 | 36.2 | Teacher |
| Shannon Horner-Shepherd | NDP | 2,412 | 3.4 | Steel Worker |
| Nathan Hawkins | Green | 750 | 1.0 | General Labourer |
| Henry Geissler | PPC | 657 | 0.9 | Truck Driver |
| Lily Eggink | Other | 529 | 0.7 | Dog Breeder |
| Other candidates | 365 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Conservative, toss-up
- Hamilton Mountain Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Liberal, safe seat
- Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Conservative, toss-up
- Hamilton Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Niagara West Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated