Niagara West
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 53% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.2 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niagara West | 42.9% | 42.6% | 4.1% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+8.4 | 48.6%−5.9 | 5.4%−1.3 | 1.8%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+12.5 | 47.0%−4.4 | 11.8%−7.7 | 2.1%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Dean Allison · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 8.5 points, with 75.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 1.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Allison Elected | Conservative | 36,418 | 51.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Jennifer Korstanje | Liberal | 30,424 | 43.0 | Student |
| Justin Abando | NDP | 2,262 | 3.2 | Student |
| Dave Bylsma | Other | 727 | 1.0 | Door Manufacturer |
| Ryan Anderson | PPC | 582 | 0.8 | Executive Director |
| Other candidates | 343 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- St. Catharines Liberal, safe seat
- Niagara South Liberal, toss-up
- Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Liberal, toss-up
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Liberal, competitive
- Hamilton Mountain Liberal, safe seat
- Hamilton Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated