St. Catharines
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Catharines | 51.3% | 31.6% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+2.7 | 34.4%−2.9 | 5.4%−0.6 | 1.8%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+4.3 | 30.4%+1.2 | 11.8%−7.0 | 2.1%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Chris Bittle · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 11.5 points, with 69.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 19.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bittle Elected | Liberal | 34,750 | 51.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Bas Sluijmers | Conservative | 27,013 | 40.2 | Sales |
| Karen Orlandi | NDP | 4,021 | 6.0 | Minister |
| Dennis Wilson | PPC | 522 | 0.8 | Retired |
| Christopher Reilly | Independent | 306 | 0.5 | Registered Practical Nurse |
| Taha Alexander Haj-Ahmad | Other | 198 | 0.3 | Scientist |
| Other candidates | 444 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Liberal, toss-up
- Niagara West Conservative, toss-up
- Niagara South Liberal, toss-up
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Liberal, competitive
- Oakville West Liberal, safe seat
- Burlington Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated