Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Federal riding · Ontario · York and Durham
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 81%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | 45.8% | 42.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+11.3 | 48.6%−6.5 | 5.4%−1.6 | 1.8%−0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+15.4 | 47.0%−4.9 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.1%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Costas Menegakis · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 11.9 points, with 69.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 3.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costas Menegakis Elected | Conservative | 34,023 | 54.4 | Businessman |
| Leah Taylor Roy | Liberal | 26,590 | 42.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Danielle Maniuk | NDP | 835 | 1.3 | Financial Administrator |
| Tom Muench | Green | 465 | 0.7 | Vice-President Government Relations |
| Igor Tvorogov | PPC | 256 | 0.4 | Software Developer |
| Other candidates | 408 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Richmond Hill South Liberal, toss-up
- Markham—Unionville Liberal, toss-up
- Newmarket—Aurora Liberal, toss-up
- Thornhill Conservative, safe seat
- King—Vaughan Conservative, safe seat
- Markham—Stouffville Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated