Newmarket—Aurora
Federal riding · Ontario · York and Durham
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 56%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmarket—Aurora | 46.2% | 41.5% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−2.4 | 34.4%+7.1 | 5.4%−1.5 | 1.8%−0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−0.8 | 30.4%+11.1 | 11.8%−7.9 | 2.1%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Sandra Cobena · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 3.6 points, with 70.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 4.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandra Cobena Elected | Conservative | 31,540 | 50.1 | Senior Manager Commercial Credit |
| Jennifer McLachlan | Liberal | 29,299 | 46.6 | Consultant |
| Anna Gollen | NDP | 1,473 | 2.3 | Executive Administrator |
| Other candidates | 579 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Conservative, toss-up
- King—Vaughan Conservative, safe seat
- Markham—Unionville Liberal, toss-up
- Richmond Hill South Liberal, toss-up
- New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Conservative, safe seat
- Markham—Stouffville Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated