New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury | 49.8% | 36.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+15.3 | 48.6%−12.5 | 5.4%−2.6 | 1.8%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+19.4 | 47.0%−10.9 | 11.8%−9.0 | 2.1%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Scot Davidson · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 22.2 points, with 68.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 13.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scot Davidson Elected | Conservative | 39,247 | 59.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Mike Hanrahan | Liberal | 24,444 | 36.7 | Restaurant Manager |
| Nancy Morrison | NDP | 1,226 | 1.8 | Retired |
| Callum McKinnon | Green | 712 | 1.1 | Student |
| Paul Montague | PPC | 496 | 0.7 | Instacart Delivery Driver |
| Other candidates | 440 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- King—Vaughan Conservative, safe seat
- Newmarket—Aurora Liberal, toss-up
- Barrie South—Innisfil Conservative, safe seat
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Conservative, toss-up
- Vaughan—Woodbridge Conservative, safe seat
- Richmond Hill South Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated