Barrie South—Innisfil
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrie South—Innisfil | 48.3% | 37.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+13.8 | 48.6%−11.5 | 5.4%−2.3 | 1.8%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+17.9 | 47.0%−9.9 | 11.8%−8.7 | 2.1%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
John Brassard · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 19.8 points, with 67.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 11.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brassard Elected | Conservative | 38,943 | 57.5 | Parliamentarian |
| John Olthuis | Liberal | 25,557 | 37.7 | Retired |
| Andrew Harrigan | NDP | 2,130 | 3.1 | Child Protection Investigator |
| Mark Sampson | PPC | 695 | 1.0 | Financial Advisor |
| Other candidates | 437 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Conservative, safe seat
- Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Liberal, toss-up
- Newmarket—Aurora Liberal, toss-up
- King—Vaughan Conservative, safe seat
- York—Durham Conservative, safe seat
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated