York—Durham
Federal riding · Ontario · York and Durham
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York—Durham | 46.0% | 38.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+11.5 | 48.6%−9.9 | 5.4%−2.4 | 1.8%+0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+15.6 | 47.0%−8.3 | 11.8%−8.8 | 2.1%+0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jacob Mantle · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 15.9 points, with 72.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 7.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Mantle Elected | Conservative | 40,329 | 55.2 | Lawyer |
| Robert Grossi | Liberal | 28,726 | 39.3 | Retired |
| Justin Graham | NDP | 1,829 | 2.5 | Property Valuation Analyst |
| Patricia Conlin | PPC | 901 | 1.2 | Human Resources Consultant |
| Matt Pearce | Green | 797 | 1.1 | Automotive Repair Manager |
| Other candidates | 504 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newmarket—Aurora Liberal, toss-up
- Pickering—Brooklin Liberal, safe seat
- Markham—Stouffville Liberal, safe seat
- Bowmanville—Oshawa North Liberal, toss-up
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Conservative, toss-up
- Whitby Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated