Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 78% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | 43.5% | 42.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−5.1 | 34.4%+7.7 | 5.4%−2.5 | 1.8%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−3.5 | 30.4%+11.7 | 11.8%−8.9 | 2.4%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Doug Shipley · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 7.3 points, with 70.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 1.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Shipley Elected | Conservative | 33,949 | 51.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Rose Zacharias | Liberal | 29,150 | 44.1 | Medical Doctor |
| Gabriela Trujillo | NDP | 1,559 | 2.4 | Caregiver |
| Greg Taylor | Green | 893 | 1.4 | Teacher |
| Michael Speers | Other | 158 | 0.2 | Media and Communications Specialist |
| Other candidates | 417 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Barrie South—Innisfil Conservative, safe seat
- Simcoe North Liberal, toss-up
- Simcoe—Grey Liberal, toss-up
- New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Conservative, safe seat
- York—Durham Conservative, safe seat
- Newmarket—Aurora Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated