Simcoe—Grey
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.4 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simcoe—Grey | 42.6% | 42.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+8.1 | 48.6%−6.1 | 5.4%−2.5 | 1.8%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+12.2 | 47.0%−4.5 | 11.8%−8.9 | 2.4%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Terry Dowdall · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 8.7 points, with 71.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 1.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Dowdall Elected | Conservative | 35,364 | 51.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Bren Munro | Liberal | 29,455 | 43.1 | Business Owner |
| Jasleen Bains | NDP | 1,574 | 2.3 | Communications Specialist |
| Allan Kuhn | Green | 991 | 1.5 | Direct Support Worker |
| Giorgio Mammoliti | PPC | 523 | 0.8 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 403 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Simcoe North Liberal, toss-up
- Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Liberal, toss-up
- Dufferin—Caledon Conservative, safe seat
- Barrie South—Innisfil Conservative, safe seat
- New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Conservative, safe seat
- Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated