Dufferin—Caledon
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dufferin—Caledon | 50.7% | 34.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+16.2 | 48.6%−14.2 | 5.4%−2.6 | 1.8%+0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+20.3 | 47.0%−12.6 | 11.8%−9.0 | 2.1%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Kyle Seeback · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 24.9 points, with 71.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 16.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Seeback Elected | Conservative | 42,458 | 59.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Malalai Halimi | Liberal | 24,818 | 35.0 | Operations Manger |
| Viktor Karklins | NDP | 1,380 | 1.9 | College Professor |
| Ifra Baig | Green | 927 | 1.3 | Student |
| Dympna Carolan | PPC | 752 | 1.1 | Financial Administrator |
| Jeffrey Halsall | Independent | 260 | 0.4 | Marketing Director |
| Other candidates | 322 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Brampton North—Caledon Liberal, safe seat
- New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Conservative, safe seat
- Wellington—Halton Hills North Liberal, toss-up
- Brampton West Liberal, competitive
- King—Vaughan Conservative, safe seat
- Brampton East Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated