King—Vaughan
Federal riding · Ontario · York and Durham
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| King—Vaughan | 52.4% | 35.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+18.0 | 48.6%−13.3 | 5.4%−1.6 | 1.8%−0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+22.0 | 47.0%−11.7 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.1%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Anna Roberts · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 25.4 points, with 71.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 17.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Roberts Elected | Conservative | 41,682 | 61.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Mubarak Ahmed | Liberal | 24,352 | 35.6 | Project Manager |
| Samantha Sanchez | NDP | 769 | 1.1 | Lawyer |
| Ann Raney | Green | 576 | 0.8 | Engineer |
| Vageesh Sabharwal | PPC | 368 | 0.5 | Dental Surgeon |
| Other candidates | 584 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Conservative, safe seat
- Newmarket—Aurora Liberal, toss-up
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Conservative, toss-up
- Vaughan—Woodbridge Conservative, safe seat
- Richmond Hill South Liberal, toss-up
- Thornhill Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated