Simcoe North
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 49%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simcoe North | 43.8% | 38.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−4.8 | 34.4%+4.4 | 5.4%−2.1 | 1.8%+0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−3.2 | 30.4%+8.5 | 11.8%−8.5 | 2.4%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Adam Chambers · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 3.7 points, with 68.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 4.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Chambers Elected | Conservative | 32,241 | 48.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Ryan Rocca | Liberal | 29,767 | 44.4 | Property Manager |
| Melissa Lloyd | NDP | 2,508 | 3.7 | Office Manager |
| Ray Little | Green | 1,260 | 1.9 | Manager, eMobility |
| Stephen Toivo Makk | PPC | 638 | 1.0 | Engineer |
| Russ Emo | Other | 191 | 0.3 | Commercial Insurance Broker |
| Other candidates | 480 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Simcoe—Grey Liberal, toss-up
- Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Liberal, toss-up
- Barrie South—Innisfil Conservative, safe seat
- New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Conservative, safe seat
- Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Conservative, toss-up
- Dufferin—Caledon Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated