Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 68%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | 43.6% | 39.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+9.1 | 48.6%−9.3 | 5.4%−2.3 | 1.8%+1.0 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+13.2 | 47.0%−7.7 | 11.8%−8.7 | 2.4%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Alex Ruff · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 12.9 points, with 69.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 4.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ruff Elected | Conservative | 35,484 | 52.8 | Retired Military Officer |
| Anne Marie Watson | Liberal | 26,837 | 39.9 | Retired |
| Christopher Neudorf | NDP | 2,069 | 3.1 | Teacher |
| Natasha Akiwenzie | Green | 1,447 | 2.2 | Manager |
| Ann Gillies | Other | 554 | 0.8 | Retired |
| Pavel Smolko | PPC | 520 | 0.8 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 344 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Simcoe—Grey Liberal, toss-up
- Simcoe North Liberal, toss-up
- Huron—Bruce Conservative, toss-up
- Dufferin—Caledon Conservative, safe seat
- Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Liberal, toss-up
- Barrie South—Innisfil Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated