Calgary Signal Hill

Federal riding · Alberta · Calgary

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
Calgary Signal Hill	53.5%	42.2%	3.4%	1.6%
Provincial averageAlberta	41.0%+12.5	42.7%−0.5	5.9%−2.5	1.8%−0.2
National averageCanada	47.0%+6.5	30.4%+11.8	11.8%−8.4	2.1%−0.5

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 84.4% Other languages (French included) 15.6%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

David McKenzie · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 23.7 points, with 74.3% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 11.3 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
David GL McKenzie Elected	Conservative	41,638	59.8	Lawyer
Bryndis Whitson	Liberal	25,174	36.2	Podcast Host
Khalis Ahmed	NDP	1,656	2.4	Geologist
Grant Strem	PPC	492	0.7	Energy Consultant
Paul Godard	Other	265	0.4	Iron Worker
Other candidates		380	0.5

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.