Calgary Heritage

Federal riding · Alberta · Calgary

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Green
Calgary Heritage	51.7%	43.5%	3.4%	1.7%
Provincial averageAlberta	41.0%+10.7	42.7%+0.8	5.9%−2.4	1.4%+0.3
National averageCanada	47.0%+4.7	30.4%+13.1	11.8%−8.4	2.4%−0.7

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 83.6% Other languages (French included) 16.4%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Shuvaloy Majumdar · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 26.7 points, with 73.6% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 8.2 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Shuv Majumdar Elected	Conservative	42,088	61.1	Parliamentarian
Scott Arnott	Liberal	23,673	34.4	Retired Corporate Accountant
Becki Zimmerman	NDP	1,691	2.5	Home Reservation Specialist
Ravenmoon Crocker	Green	493	0.7	Administration
Chris Galas	Independent	280	0.4	Retired Engineer
Larry R. Heather	Other	268	0.4	Retired
Other candidates		368	0.5

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.