Calgary Midnapore
Federal riding · Alberta · Calgary
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 57% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.8 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary Midnapore | 47.5% | 47.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%+4.8 | 41.0%+6.1 | 5.9%−2.3 | 1.8%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+17.1 | 47.0%+0.1 | 11.8%−8.2 | 2.1%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Stephanie Kusie · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 35.4 points, with 73.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 1.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie Kusie Elected | Conservative | 48,131 | 65.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Sunjiv Raval | Liberal | 21,979 | 29.8 | Operational Service |
| Austin Mullins | NDP | 2,271 | 3.1 | Customer Service Professional |
| Colin Kindret | PPC | 556 | 0.8 | Self-Employed Driver |
| Adam Delgado | Green | 495 | 0.7 | Recruitment Director |
| Other candidates | 400 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Calgary Heritage Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Shepard Conservative, toss-up
- Calgary East Liberal, competitive
- Calgary Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Signal Hill Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Confederation Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated