Calgary Confederation

Federal riding · Alberta · Calgary

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 36.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Green
Calgary Confederation	65.1%	28.3%	3.8%	1.5%
Provincial averageAlberta	41.0%+24.1	42.7%−14.4	5.9%−2.0	1.4%+0.2
National averageCanada	47.0%+18.1	30.4%−2.1	11.8%−8.0	2.4%−0.9

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 89.4% Other languages (French included) 10.6%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Corey Hogan · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 1.8 points, with 74.5% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 36.8 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Corey Hogan Elected	Liberal	33,112	47.8	University Executive
Jeremy Nixon	Conservative	31,839	45.9	Stakeholder Relations
Keira Gunn	NDP	2,844	4.1	University Instructor
Richard Willott	Green	400	0.6	Retired
Artyom Ovsepyan	PPC	302	0.4	IT System Administrator
Jeffrey Reid Marsh	Other	198	0.3	Community Volunteer
Kevan Hunter	Other	144	0.2	Teacher
Other candidates		476	0.7

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.