Calgary Centre

Federal riding · Alberta · Calgary

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Green
Calgary Centre	62.8%	32.2%	3.5%	1.5%
Provincial averageAlberta	41.0%+21.8	42.7%−10.5	5.9%−2.4	1.4%+0.2
National averageCanada	47.0%+15.8	30.4%+1.8	11.8%−8.3	2.4%−0.9

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 0.8% English 86.4% Other languages 12.8%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Greg McLean · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 4.4 points, with 68.6% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 30.6 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Greg McLean Elected	Conservative	31,604	49.9	Parliamentarian
Lindsay Luhnau	Liberal	28,824	45.5	Municipal Public Servant
Beau Shaw	NDP	1,665	2.6	Electronics Technologist
Robert Hawley	PPC	365	0.6	Retired
Jayden Baldonado	Green	362	0.6	Student
Scott Fea	Other	126	0.2	Technical Support
Other candidates		389	0.6

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.