Calgary Nose Hill

Federal riding · Alberta · Calgary

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Green
Calgary Nose Hill	53.3%	41.5%	3.6%	1.6%
Provincial averageAlberta	41.0%+12.3	42.7%−1.2	5.9%−2.3	1.4%+0.3
National averageCanada	47.0%+6.3	30.4%+11.1	11.8%−8.2	2.4%−0.8

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 78.4% Other languages (French included) 21.6%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Michelle Rempel Garner · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 23.1 points, with 69.2% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 11.8 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Michelle Rempel Garner Elected	Conservative	36,597	59.1	Parliamentarian
Tom Becker	Liberal	22,276	36.0	Retired Geologist
Ahmed Khan	NDP	1,975	3.2	Self-Employed Consultant Geologist
Addison Fach	Green	430	0.7	Labourer
Vanessa Wang	Other	199	0.3	Laboratory Team Lead
Peggy Askin	Other	115	0.2	Retired Telecommunications Worker
Other candidates		300	0.5

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.