Calgary Crowfoot

Federal riding · Alberta · Calgary

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Green
Calgary Crowfoot	54.5%	40.9%	3.5%	1.5%
Provincial averageAlberta	41.0%+13.5	42.7%−1.8	5.9%−2.4	1.4%+0.1
National averageCanada	47.0%+7.5	30.4%+10.5	11.8%−8.4	2.4%−0.9

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 81.5% Other languages (French included) 18.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Pat Kelly · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 21.4 points, with 73.9% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 13.6 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Pat Kelly Elected	Conservative	39,971	58.5	Parliamentarian
Shahnaz Munir	Liberal	25,386	37.2	Teacher
Jim Samuelson	NDP	1,741	2.5	Canada Post Letter Carrier
Yvonne Snyder	PPC	360	0.5	Teacher
Nanette Nerland	Green	346	0.5	Career Coach
Lachlan Van Egmond	Independent	131	0.2	Student
Other candidates		356	0.5

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.