Airdrie—Cochrane
Federal riding · Alberta · Calgary
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airdrie—Cochrane | 51.4% | 37.4% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%+8.7 | 41.0%−3.6 | 5.9%−2.5 | 1.8%−0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+21.0 | 47.0%−9.6 | 11.8%−8.4 | 2.1%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Blake Richards · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 47.2 points, with 74.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 14.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Richards Elected | Conservative | 50,252 | 70.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Sean Secord | Liberal | 16,714 | 23.5 | VP of Start-up Biotechnology Company |
| Sarah Zagoda | NDP | 2,591 | 3.6 | School Technologist |
| David Sabine | Other | 623 | 0.9 | Management Consultant |
| Christopher Bell | Other | 380 | 0.5 | Engineer |
| Other candidates | 458 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Calgary Crowfoot Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Skyview Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Nose Hill Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Confederation Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary McKnight Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Signal Hill Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated