Calgary Shepard
Federal riding · Alberta · Calgary
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 58%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calgary Shepard | 50.0% | 45.4% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%+7.3 | 41.0%+4.4 | 5.9%−2.4 | 1.8%−0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+19.6 | 47.0%−1.6 | 11.8%−8.3 | 2.1%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Tom Kmiec · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 39.6 points, with 72.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 4.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Kmiec Elected | Conservative | 44,363 | 67.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Gul Khan | Liberal | 18,421 | 28.1 | Business Manager |
| Tory Tomblin | NDP | 1,780 | 2.7 | Labour Relations Officer |
| Donald Legere | PPC | 383 | 0.6 | Retired |
| Robert Frasch | Green | 302 | 0.5 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 289 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Calgary Midnapore Conservative, toss-up
- Calgary East Liberal, competitive
- Calgary Heritage Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Confederation Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary McKnight Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated