Windsor West
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 56% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.3 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Windsor West | 30.5% | 30.1% | 22.7% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%−4.0 | 48.6%−18.4 | 5.4%+17.3 | 1.8%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+0.1 | 47.0%−16.9 | 11.8%+10.9 | 2.1% |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Harb Gill · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 8.0 points, with 58.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 1.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harb Gill Elected | Conservative | 21,412 | 38.7 | Retired Police Officer |
| Richard Pollock | Liberal | 16,986 | 30.7 | Lawyer |
| Brian Masse | NDP | 15,256 | 27.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Jacob Bezaire | PPC | 553 | 1.0 | Machinist |
| Louay Ahmad | Green | 397 | 0.7 | Student |
| Joseph Markham | Other | 195 | 0.4 | Registered Nurse |
| Margaret Villamizar | Other | 89 | 0.2 | Language Assessor |
| Other candidates | 440 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Liberal, safe seat
- Essex Conservative, safe seat
- Chatham-Kent—Leamington Conservative, safe seat
- Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Conservative, safe seat
- Middlesex—London Conservative, toss-up
- Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated