Elgin—St. Thomas—London South
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 69% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.4 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elgin—St. Thomas—London South | 42.3% | 41.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−6.3 | 34.4%+7.2 | 5.4%−1.3 | 1.8%+1.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−4.7 | 30.4%+11.2 | 11.8%−7.7 | 2.1%+1.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Andrew Lawton · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 7.0 points, with 68.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 1.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Lawton Elected | Conservative | 32,565 | 49.8 | Journalist |
| David Goodwin | Liberal | 28,010 | 42.9 | Director - AGF Investments |
| Paul Pighin | NDP | 3,118 | 4.8 | Landscaper |
| Stephen Campbell | PPC | 1,256 | 1.9 | Information Technology |
| Other candidates | 416 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- London West Liberal, safe seat
- London—Fanshawe Conservative, toss-up
- London Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Middlesex—London Conservative, toss-up
- Oxford Conservative, safe seat
- Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated