Oxford
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford | 44.9% | 37.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+10.5 | 48.6%−11.1 | 5.4%−1.4 | 1.8%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+14.5 | 47.0%−9.5 | 11.8%−7.8 | 2.1%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Arpan Khanna · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 15.1 points, with 71.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 7.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arpan Khanna Elected | Conservative | 38,191 | 53.2 | Parliamentarian |
| David Hilderley | Liberal | 27,311 | 38.0 | Realtor |
| Matthew Chambers | NDP | 3,046 | 4.2 | Custodian |
| Jacob Watson | Other | 1,203 | 1.7 | Manufacturer |
| Cheryle Baker | Green | 897 | 1.2 | Engineer |
| Steven Beausoleil | PPC | 642 | 0.9 | Self-Employed |
| Melanie Van Brugge | Other | 152 | 0.2 | Consultant |
| Akshay Varun Raj Vardhan | Independent | 109 | 0.2 | Lawyer |
| Other candidates | 304 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- London—Fanshawe Conservative, toss-up
- London Centre Liberal, safe seat
- London West Liberal, safe seat
- Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Conservative, toss-up
- Kitchener—Conestoga Liberal, safe seat
- Cambridge Liberal, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated